Congress has thrown BJP out of power in three important states of the Hindi belt in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. There have been questions arising in the elections of 2019 after the results of these assembly elections which appeared just 4 months before the Lok Sabha. The most important question is, if voting is done in 2019 as of now, what will happen in these three states?
If the mapping of the assembly seats of these states is done with the Lok Sabha seats, the BJP seems to be suffering a huge loss. Although BJP can retain its hold in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, but if such voting is done then it can be clear from Chhattisgarh in the Lok Sabha elections. In terms of the results of the assembly elections, BJP has seen 17 seats out of 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, 13 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan and one in 11 seats in Chhattisgarh.
In the earlier elections, something similar has happened
On the basis of the results of the assembly elections, there is a question arising on the assessment of the Lok Sabha elections, is there any sense of such comparison? If you make the basis of the earlier electoral experience, then definitely Sense seems to be made. In these states, even in the elections held in 2004, 2009 and 2014, the assembly elections were held 6 months or less before the elections. Statistics show that even then in the Lok Sabha elections, there was more or less reflection of assembly elections. In 2004, only Rajasthan was shown as an exception, where in December 2003 the people had rejected BJP in the assembly elections but won 20 of the 25 seats in the Lok Sabha elections.
Big flick is for BJP
If the pattern of impact on the Lok Sabha elections of the assembly elections continues, it will be a huge loss to the BJP for the 2019 elections. In the 2014 elections, BJP won 25 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, 27 out of 29 seats in MP and 10 in 11 seats in Chhattisgarh. That is, among the 65 Lok Sabha seats in all three states, BJP won 62.
If the impact of the assembly elections was on the Lok Sabha, this tale of BJP could come down to 31 seats. That is, the BJP clearly seems to be losing half of the Lok Sabha seats. In the 2014 general elections of Uttar Pradesh, BJP has won 72 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. Now in UP, there is a drill between SP, BSP, Congress and RLD. It is not possible for BJP to double the 2014 performance here too. In such a situation, the injury to BJP in Hindi heartland can be huge.